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04/10/2008 - Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Newman captured the pole for Saturday night's Subway Fresh Fit 500 at the Phoenix International Raceway. The No.12 Alltel Dodge circled the flat one-mile oval in 26.975 seconds (133.457 m.p.h.).
The pole victory was Newman's first of the season, record fourth at PIR and 43rd of his Sprint Cup career. It's been an eventful week for the Penske driver who received a 25-point penalty earlier in the week after failing post- race inspection in Texas.
"It wasn't a perfect lap, but it was a very good lap," said Newman, the track qualifying record holder (26.499 seconds in 2004). "I want to thank everybody at Penske Racing."
Starting alongside Newman will be Elliott Sadler who posted a time of 26.984 seconds.
Row two will consist of Carl Edwards (26.991), who won last week's race and Mark Martin (26.993). They were the only drivers to break the 27-second barrier.
"I think we are going to be pretty competitive on Saturday night," said Edwards, who leaders the series with three wins.
Other drivers of note and their starting positions: Kasey Kahne (fifth), Kyle Busch (sixth), two-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson (seventh), Martin Truex Jr. (ninth), Jeff Gordon (11th), Tony Stewart (12th), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (13th), Kevin Harvick (17th) and Matt Kenseth (27th).
Kyle Petty and John Andretti failed to qualify for the race.
If the Chase for the Sprint Cup started today, there would be some very big names left without a "ticket to the dance." NASCAR invites just 12 drivers to compete in the "Chase." Currently outside the top-12 are: Kenseth, Gordon and Kurt Busch - all former series champions. Others who would be left off the list include: Truex Jr., who made last year's Chase, Juan Pablo Montoya, Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears.
Kenseth, the 2003 Sprint Cup Champion, is the closest to qualifying for the "Chase," just 54 points behind both Kahne and Clint Bowyer.
Gordon, part of the Hendrick Motorsports team of drivers which dominated in 2007 winning 18 of 36 events, has been frustrated for much of the season trying to find the right setup.
"I can't remember the last time we struggled this bad," said the four-time series champion.
In 2008 a Kurt Busch sighting in the top-10 has been a rare event. After pushing Penske teammate Ryan Newman to the victory at Daytona in February, Busch, the 2004 Sprint Cup Champion, has failed to earn a top-10.
But the good news for these guys and the rest of the drivers outside the top-12 is that there is plenty of time left to get it together and make the "Chase." There are still 19 races remaining before the Sprint Cup "regular" season ends in Richmond on September 6th.
Gordon is the defending champion both at PIR and the next race in Talladega.
The race is scheduled to drop the green flag on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. (et).
<< Inter Milan's Crespo not headed to Roma
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hernan Crespo's agent insists the Argentina
striker will not be moving from Inter Milan to Roma this summer.
The 32-year-old former Chelsea star has been linked with a move to the capital
after growing disi
<< San Jose set for home opener against Chicago
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Jose coach Frank Yallop and his players
sounded like a broken record after the club's loss in its first match in Major
League Soccer since 2005.
"We still have a ways to go," Yallop said.
"It's a lea
<< AC Milan wants Ronaldinho and Shevchenko
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - AC Milan vice-president Adriano Galliani has
hinted that both Ronaldinho and Andriy Shevchenko will be snapped up the
Rossoneri in the summer.
Shevchenko has endured a difficult two seasons at Chel
<< Phillies' Rollins sits again
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies were minus the
services of shortstop Jimmy Rollins for a second straight night Thursday while
wrapping up a three-game series with the rival New York Mets.
Rollins left Tuesday
Rose and Immelman lead Masters; Woods four back >>
Augusta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Rose and Trevor Immelman both posted
rounds of four-under-par 68 on Thursday to share the opening-round lead of The
Masters at Augusta National.
Tiger Woods, who proclaimed that the single-season
Ochoa shares lead in her native Mexico >>
Morelia, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off her second major championship,
Lorena Ochoa fired a seven-under 66 on Thursday to take a share of the first-
round lead at the Corona Championship.
The Mexican star opened with two eagles,
Boston College moves into final >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nathan Gerbe recorded a hat trick and added an
assist, as Boston College reached the championship game by defeating
North Dakota, 6-1, in the Frozen Four.
Ben Smith and Dan Bertram each posted a
Masters First Round News & Notes >>
Augusta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ian Poulter aced the par-three 16th hole,
which, at the time, tied him for the lead at three-under par. He bogeyed the
17th hole to fall back to two-under par.
"You've got a few thousand people on th
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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