Michigan State topples BC; captures NCAA championship

Chockey Betting Lines

04/08/2007 - St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Abdelkader's goal with 18.9 seconds left in regulation was the game-winner, as Michigan State claimed its third championship in school history with a 3-1 win over Boston College at Scottrade Center in St. Louis.

Tim Kennedy had a goal and an assist for the Spartans, who ended the season with five straight wins. Chris Mueller also tallied and Jeff Lerg stopped 28 shots.

"BC was coming to the net hard all game, but I knew if I made key saves, we'd have a chance, because we could not play their game," said Lerg. "In the end, we outplayed them."

Brian Boyle scored the lone goal for the Eagles, who saw their 13-game win streak snapped in cruel fashion. Cory Schneider stopped 26 shots in the loss, BC's second consecutive finals defeat.

Michigan State claimed the championship by scoring three times on a passive Boston College team in the third period.

Kennedy answered to tie the game for Michigan State on a power-play goal at 9:53, breaking away from two BC checkers and scoring low and inside the left post.

Then, with the clock ticking down towards overtime, Michigan State kept pressure on in the Eagles' defensive zone. Kennedy broke down the right side and clanged a shot off the right goalpost. He followed the puck behind the goal line and emerged from a scrum with the disc and fed in front to Abdelkader, who slipped the puck by Schneider for a 2-1 lead.

"It was an unbelievable play," Abdelkader said. "I saw the puck go behind the net, and wanted to find a spot in the slot. I got my stick on it, and it was fortunate that it went in."

Mueller added an empty-netter with 1.2 seconds to go and the bench erupted as the Spartans claimed their first title since 1986.

"We knew going into the game, they were a patient team,"said BC forward Joe Rooney. "They kept five guys low. We got our chances, but didn't get the bounces we needed. Got TO hand it to their goalie, he played well."

The Spartans, playing out of the CCHA, broke a streak of five consecutive champions from the WCHA stretching back to Boston College's win in 2001. The last school from the CCHA to win a title was Michigan, who took the crown in 1998 against Boston College.

Neither team scored in a spirited first period which saw BC outshoot Michigan State 13-6.

BC had a 5-on-3 advantage with five minutes played in the second, and capitalized while skating with one extra man as Nathan Gerbe won a battle along the boards and pushed the puck into the left circle. Brock Bradford stepped up and ripped a shot from the faceoff dot that hit Boyle's leg and sailed into the right corner of the net for a 1-0 lead at 6:50.

Michigan State went up by two men midway through the period, but BC held on without allowing a quality chance. Despite 12 shots in the second, the Spartans were still unable to solve Schneider.

That would set the stage for a stunning reversal in the final 20 minutes of the contest.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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