North Texas takes on Troy in Sun Belt title tilt

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Troy Trojans and the second- seeded North Texas Mean Green have advanced to the championship game of the 2010 Sun Belt Conference Tournament, and they will compete for an automatic bid to the "Big Dance" this evening.

North Texas squeaked by 10th-seeded UL-Monroe in the quarterfinal round by three points, and the Mean Green defeated Denver in the semifinals on Monday by a 63-56 final. That victory was the 10th in a row for the squad, which has improved to 23-8 overall. North Texas won its lone Sun Belt Conference championship in 2007.

As for Troy, it is riding a seven-game win streak that has enabled it to move to 20-11 overall, including 4-0 in neutral-site affairs. After a 12-point win over South Alabama in the quarterfinals, the Trojans managed to defeat Western Kentucky last night, 54-48. They are relative newcomers to the conference and failed to win the title in their previous four Sun Belt Tournament appearances.

The Mean Green beat the Trojans in a 75-72 final on the road in the only regular-season meeting between the two teams, and UNT owns a 5-2 advantage in the all-time series.

There are four double-digit scorers on the North Texas roster, and the team is averaging 74.5 ppg while permitting 69.6 ppg to opponents. Josh White leads the Mean Green with 15.0 ppg on 40.4 percent shooting from three-point range, and he has dished out 111 assists. Tristan Thompson provides 14.2 ppg on 41 percent accuracy from behind the arc, and Eric Tramiel checks in with 12.7 ppg. Rounding out the foursome is George Odufuwa with 11.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg, and he is a 61.4 percent shooter from the field. In last night's win over Denver, North Texas earned a 20-8 edge in points from the foul line and a 36-27 advantage on the boards. The Mean Green played tremendous defense, limiting the Pioneers to 38.9 percent shooting from the field.

Troy is generating 75.5 ppg this season while allowing 71.9 ppg to opponents. Brandon Hazzard leads the Trojans with 16.6 ppg, and Richard Delk provides 12.5 ppg. Michael Vogler brings 11.8 ppg to the mix, and Yamene Coleman rounds out the foursome of double-digit scorers with 10.1 ppg and 7.9 rpg. Vogler has dished out 170 assists to go along with 57 steals, and all four players mentioned have started every game this season. The same goes for Antywan Jones (8.8 ppg), and it is rare to see a team make it this far into the season with the exact same starting unit. Against Western Kentucky yesterday, Hazzard scored 17 points to lead a shaky offensive effort in which Troy shot just 37.5 percent from the floor. Fortunately, the Trojans were able to limit the Hilltoppers to 35.7 percent shooting.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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