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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It required a major effort for the Tennessee Titans to salvage their season from the scrap heap of an 0-5 start, and the hard work will continue for Vince Young and his band of AFC Wild Card hopefuls on Sunday.
The 11-4 Patriots will visit LP Field in Week 17, and while a victory over the reigning "team of the decade" would be impressive indeed, it wouldn't be enough to get the Titans into the playoffs in and of itself.
Tennessee, which is bidding to become the first team in NFL history to reach the postseason after losing its first five games, will need the Steelers to win at Cincinnati and the Chiefs to take care of visiting Jacksonville at the same time that the Titans are scoring a victory over the Patriots. If all of that goes according to plan, Jeff Fisher's club would then require the 6-9 49ers to go into Denver and prevail.
Though their playoff odds remain long, the leap that the Titans have made with Young as their quarterback is nothing short of extraordinary. The franchise has followed up a dismal stretch of 9-29 football by winning eight of its last 10, including a current six-game winning streak that represents Tennessee's longest since 2003. The latest heroics for Young, who sports an impressive 8-4 starting record in his rookie year, came in last Sunday's 30-29 win at Buffalo, when he threw for a pair of touchdowns and scored another on a dazzling 36-yard run to daylight near the end of the first half.
New England, meanwhile, sewed up its fifth AFC East title in six years with last week's 24-21 win at Jacksonville, and will be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the upcoming playoffs.
Though a victory over the Titans would improve the Patriots' chances of earning the No. 3 seed, head coach Bill Belichick could choose to rest many of his starters in the interests of playing a potentially more favorable 4-5 matchup with Denver and rookie quarterback Jay Cutler in the first postseason round. A win and an Indianapolis loss to the Dolphins on Sunday would leave New England subject to playing the AFC East rival New York Jets, who defeated the Patriots at Gillette Stadium back in Week 10.
Faced with a similar situation in Week 17 of the 2005 season, Belichick sat a large number of players in a 28-26 home loss to Miami, and managed to avoid a First-Round matchup against sixth-seed and eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh.
SERIES HISTORY
The Patriots own a 19-15-1 advantage in their all-time regular season series with the Titans, including a 38-30 win in the last such matchup, at Gillette Stadium in 2003. Tennessee won the previous meeting, a 24-7 win at home in 2002. That game marked the Pats' only trip to Tennessee in their history. New England's last road win in the series came at the then-Houston Oilers in 1987.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met twice in the postseason. New England was a 17-14 home winner in a 2003 AFC Divisional Playoff that preceded its second of three Super Bowl titles, and also dropped a 31-14 home decision to the Oilers in a 1978 AFC Divisional Playoff.
Belichick is 6-7 all-time against the Titans/Oilers, including 2-1 since coming to New England in 2000. The Titans' Fisher is 1-3 all-time against the Patriots, and is 2-4 head-to-head against Belichick.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. TITANS DEFENSE
Beyond the fact that their playoff participation has already been determined, the Patriots could seek to rest quarterback Tom Brady (3304 passing yards, 23 TD, 12 INT) on Sunday for reasons of recuperation. Brady took a vicious hit from Jacksonville linebacker Clint Ingram last week, and while the three-time Super Bowl winner finished out the win, he hadn't practiced as of Thursday due to what was described as a shoulder injury. Though chances are that Brady (who is listed as probable) will make his 105th consecutive start, it seems likely that backups Matt Cassel and Vinny Testaverde will both see action on Sunday. Cassel's most extensive time as a pro came in a similar situation in Week 17 of last year, when he completed 13-of-24 passes for 183 yards and a couple of touchdowns against Miami, in relief of Brady. The 43-year-old Testaverde has appeared in two games in kneel-down situations this year, but has yet to throw a pass in a New England uniform. The Patriots have 11 different players with a touchdown catch this year, so the players trotted out to catch passes at Tennessee are anybody's guess. Wideout Reche Caldwell (57 receptions, 3 TD) is the team leader in receptions, and tight end Benjamin Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD) is first in receiving yards (643). The New England o-line has allowed a modest 27 sacks on the year.
The Titans are just 26th in the NFL against the pass (223.9 yards per game) as Week 17 begins, and their 24 sacks rank in a tie for 29th in the league, though those numbers don't spell out Tennessee's playmaking abilities against aerial attacks. All four of the Titans' secondary starters - cornerbacks Pacman Jones (60 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) and Reynaldo Hill (53 tackles, 2 INT) along with safeties Chris Hope (117 tackles, 5 INT) and Lamont Thompson (63 tackles, 3 INT) - have multiple interceptions in 2006, and both Hill and Hope came up with key picks in the win over Buffalo. Hill effectively ended the game by intercepting J.P. Losman on a 4th-and-5 pass in the closing seconds, while Hope's pick in Buffalo territory set up a Titans field goal. The pass rush has struggled to apply pressure for most of the year, but end Travis LaBoy (31 tackles, 3.5 sacks) had one of three Tennessee sacks of Losman last Sunday. Fellow DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (67 tackles, 5.5 sacks) leads the Titans in sacks, but has not broken through to the quarterback in seven of his last eight games.
Since all of the running backs currently on the New England roster serve a vital purpose within the team's offense, Belichick won't be able to offer up a sacrificial lamb as a rusher in a game with low stakes. Complicating matters is the fact that the player who would most accurately fit the description of a backup, third-down ace Kevin Faulk (123 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 3 TD), is listed as questionable with a knee problem. That means veteran Corey Dillon (745 rushing yards, 11 TD) and rookie Laurence Maroney (672 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 6 TD) are likely to see significant carries, with fullback Heath Evans (103 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 1 TD) paving the way and receiving an occasional touch. Maroney and Dillon combined for 78 yards on 17 carries against the Jaguars last Sunday, and both scored touchdowns in the win. The Patriots are 12th in NFL rushing offense (119.9 yards per game).
Whoever does the running for the Patriots should be able to accrue some mileage against a Tennessee defense that is just 28th in the league against the run (142.8 yards per game) as the week begins. Bills running backs Willis McGahee and Anthony Thomas combined for 102 yards on 23 carries last week, despite the best efforts of linebackers Keith Bulluck (135 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT), Peter Sirmon (82 tackles, 1 INT), and David Thornton (102 tackles). Bulluck had a team-high eight tackles in the win, while Sirmon and Bulluck combined for 12 stops. Tackles Albert Haynesworth (27 tackles, 2 sacks) and Randy Starks (37 tackles, 3 sacks) posted two stops each in Buffalo, and both players were credited with one sack.
TITANS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Young (1972 passing yards, 12 TD, 11 INT, 523 rushing yards, 6 TD) is arguably the No. 1 candidate for league Rookie of the Year honors, with his eight wins as a starter ranking in the all-time top five for rookies. Last week, Young became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to reach 500 rushing yards, and also cemented himself as the first player in league annals with three rushing touchdowns of 20 yards or longer and three touchdown passes of 20 yards or longer in his rookie season. In addition to his long touchdown run against the Bills, Young threw TD passes of 22 and 29 yards to wideouts Bobby Wade (29 receptions, 2 TD) and Brandon Jones (26 receptions, 4 TD), respectively. Jones finished with five catches for 101 yards and the score, the first 100-yard game of his two-year NFL career. Wade is listed as questionable for this week with an ankle problem, as is tight end Bo Scaife (29 receptions, 2 TD). Drew Bennett leads Tennessee in catches (42) and receiving yards (662), but did not have a grab versus Buffalo. A young Titans line has surrendered only 24 sacks all year.
Young could have some trouble making big plays with his arm against a New England defense that has surrendered an NFL-low 10 touchdown passes all year. The Patriots' aerial defense is solid all around, with the pass rush placing pressure on quarterbacks to the tune of 39 sacks (tied for seventh in the league), and the team notching 20 interceptions to keep teams honest on the back end (fifth overall). The Patriots had just one sack of the Jaguars' David Garrard last week, but it was a timely one by Jarvis Green (31 tackles, 6.5 sacks) that resulted in a lost fumble on Jacksonville's ill-fated final drive. Green is now one sack behind outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin (49 tackles, 7.5 sacks) for the team lead in that category. The secondary did not have an interception, but did get some good news in the form of strong safety Rodney Harrison's return the fold. Harrison (47 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had been sidelined six games due to a fractured scapula, and posted three tackles and a fumble recovery in his return. Cornerback Asante Samuel (62 tackles, 8 INT) enters Week 17 one interception behind Denver's Champ Bailey for the NFL lead in that department.
Titans running back Travis Henry (1109 rushing yards, 7 TD, 17 receptions) had something to prove in his return to Buffalo last week, and the former Bill made his old team pay to the tune of 135 yards on 25 carries in the Tennessee victory. The game marked Henry's first 100-yard outing since Week 11 in Philadelphia. The University of Tennessee product is listed as questionable for this week with an ankle injury, but is expected to play. With 57 yards this week, he will have put together the most productive season for a Titans running back since Eddie George went over 1,500 yards in the 2000 campaign. Rookie LenDale White (240 rushing yards, 14 receptions) spelled Henry with 33 yards on nine total touches in Buffalo. The Titans are fifth in the league in rushing offense (138.6 yards per game).
Both Henry and Young figure to have their work cut out for them against a New England defense that ranks fifth in the league against the run (91.5 yards per game) and has surrendered only three rushes of 20 yards or longer the entire season. The good news on that front is the fact that the Jaguars' Maurice Jones-Drew gutted New England for 131 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries a week ago, including a 74-yard touchdown run in the second quarter that staked Jacksonville to a 7-3 lead. Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (105 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (86 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) were quiet in the win, combining for just six tackles. The three-man-line of nose tackle Michael Wright (23 tackles, 1 sack) and ends Richard Seymour (37 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Ty Warren (77 tackles, 6.5 sacks) also did little of note in the victory. Wright was making his second straight start in place of the injured Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack), who is questionable for Sunday due to an ankle injury.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Belichick and Brady have both indicated that the Patriots are going to Tennessee to win, though what that means exactly is anyone's guess. Are they going to take four knees at the Titans 5-yard line in the second quarter? Of course not, but that doesn't mean the likes of Brady, Maroney, Dillon, Seymour, Bruschi, and Harrison are going to be seen or heard from in the second half. Worrying about who New England is going to play of course demeans Tennessee, which is playing well enough at the moment to go toe-to-toe with a Patriots team at full strength. But don't figure on the Titans having to contend with that scenario, since there is precedent to suggest that Belichick is going to utilize his starters cautiously in a game that isn't strictly necessary for the Patriots to win.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Titans 23, Patriots 14
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somewhere, is
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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Terrell Owens could return for Cowboys next game
A bye week will allow Terrell Owens broken hand to recover just in time for the next game the Dallas Cowboys are slated to play, according to reports. MySportsbook.com, an football sportsbook, has posted football betting lines on TO playing.
Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger Sunday night and had a plate surgically attached to it Monday. Although Owens' hand was swollen and aching Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said he's optimistic the receiver will be back at work next week and catching passes a week from Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.
MySportsbook.com online sportsbook listed Terrell Owens with odds of 7-2 (or $7 paid out for every $2 bet) to return back for the game against Tennessee.
"I certainly wouldn't rule it out now," Parcells said, referring to Terrell Owens immediate return. "Maybe five days from now I might, but I wouldn't rule it out now. ... I know we're looking to try to get him moving around pretty good in the next day or so. So we'll see where we are."
Owens did not speak with reporters Wednesday, but said Sunday he'd be out two to four weeks. A return against the Titans would be 13 days after the surgery. The Cowboys were listed as an early -7 1/2 favorite vs. the Tennessee Titans for Week 4 at MySportsbook.com
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