Two tours, two wins for Villegas

Golf Betting Lines

03/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before Camilo Villegas arrived at the first tee Sunday, he called his mother in Colombia. "Tell the little bro congratulations and keep it up," he told her.

More than 1,500 miles away, Manuel Villegas was signing his scorecard at the Nationwide Tour's Bogota Open, a final-round 67 that earned him a tie for 15th place and a $9,900 check.

Hours later, Camilo Villegas holed a 19-foot putt on the last hole to win the PGA Tour's Honda Classic by five shots. His third PGA Tour victory netted him more than $1 million.

Believe it or not, there's some question as to which finish was more valuable.

As the elder Villegas was running away from the field at PGA National -- leaving Anthony Kim, Justin Rose, Vijay Singh and Paul Casey in his dust -- his native Colombia was hosting the first-ever PGA Tour-sanctioned event in South America.

Camilo Villegas played a big part in the landmark tournament. He flew to Bogota on Monday, taught in the junior clinic, played the pro-am, went to the dinner and the player party.

Then he hopped on a plane and returned to his new home -- he lives 15 minutes from PGA National -- to play in the Honda Classic.

In one whirlwind week, Villegas shined a spotlight on a part of the globe that has largely been neglected by the major U.S. golf tours, to their detriment. As the tours have expanded to locations in Asia, Australia and elsewhere, they have largely ignored Latin America, even as those countries continue to produce top-flight talent.

The cold shoulder couldn't have lasted much longer. Not while South America is six years from hosting the first Olympic golf tournament in more than 100 years.

"I believe it can be a huge step for Latin American and South American golf," Camilo Villegas said of the Bogota event. "I think the Nationwide should keep exploring other countries down there. I've had a chance to play throughout all of South America, and it's a beautiful place, full of great people, great golf courses, and the game keeps growing.

"I mean, we keep trying to do our best to represent this game and make it grow down there...and we all should keep doing the same things."

Villegas, 28, noted after his win that many Colombians would be watching the Nationwide event closely (48-year-old Steve Pate won in a playoff). But he also knew they would be following him.

He just hoped that the newspapers in his home country would split the page in half: equal space for him and the Nationwide event. Of course, that was unlikely.

The country's oldest paper ran a large picture of Villegas on the front page with the headline "Que buena onda" -- which, as far as I can tell, is akin to "That's awesome."

"Having the Nationwide event there was huge for my country," Camilo Villegas said. "I'm sure all of those guys are going to come back to the states with a totally different perception of my country. That's what I've been telling a lot of people. I mean, you've got to go there. You've got to visit. You've got to experience it. You've got to just see reality."

For a long time a lot was made of Villegas' potential to be a transformative young player. He could bash the ball. He also had a delicate touch. He worked hard and had the biceps of an Olympic swimmer. He had the Spider-Man crouch he used to read greens, a photogenic move that shutterbugs scrambled to capture.

But for two-and-a-half seasons on the PGA Tour, and one on the Nationwide Tour, there was something Villegas hadn't done: win a tournament. That all changed when he won back-to-back events during the FedEx Cup playoffs in 2008, against two stacked fields.

A year before that, in a column on Sept. 9, 2007, I wrote that the media should "refrain from lauding Camilo Villegas until the young Colombian star does something laudable."

We are certainly past that point now.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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